Free tools › Pot odds, MDF and outs
Pot odds, MDF and outs The price of a call, how often to defend, how many bluffs a bet carries
Enter the pot and the bet you face. The calculator gives the equity a call needs, the minimum defense frequency, and the share of bluffs in a balanced river bet of that size. Below it, outs turn into exact percentages.
Every common bet size
Outs to equity
The formulas
equity a call needs = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) · MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet) · value : bluff = (pot + bet) : bet
Outs on the flop: 47 cards are unseen, so the chance to hit by the river is 1 − C(47 − outs, 2) ÷ C(47, 2); on the turn it is outs ÷ 46. A flush draw has 9 outs (35.0% by the river), an open-ended straight draw 8 (31.5%), both together 15 (54.1%).
Questions
How do I calculate pot odds?
Facing a bet, you call the bet to win the pot plus the bet. The equity you need is call ÷ (pot after your call). A half-pot bet: you call 50 to win 150, so you need 50 ÷ 200 = 25%.
What is minimum defense frequency (MDF)?
The share of your range you have to continue with so that a bet cannot show an automatic profit with any two cards: pot ÷ (pot + bet). Against a pot-size bet it is 50%. It is a reference point for a balanced defence, not a rule for every hand.
How many bluffs should a river bet have?
With a polarised range on the river, a balanced bet makes the caller's bluff-catchers indifferent. That happens when bluffs are bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) of the betting range, the same number as the equity a call needs. A pot-size bet carries one bluff for every two value bets. Nash equilibrium derives it.
Is the rule of 2 and 4 accurate?
It is close for small numbers of outs and overshoots as outs grow: with 15 outs on the flop it says 60% where the exact chance to hit by the river is 54.1%. The outs calculator on this page gives both.
More free tools
Free poker tools from ART/GTO. They run in your browser and send nothing anywhere.